No one thinks that Donald Trump will win a majority of the votes in the 2020 election. In the country that considers itself the world’s leading democracy, the political coverage and predictions start from this: The current president lost the popular vote by a margin of more than 3 million in 2016, and all the polling says that the 2016 margin is the absolute floor from which Joe Biden will build an even greater popular advantage. Whether Trump serves one term or two terms, there will never be more people who voted for him than voted against him.
Trump’s chances hinge on a polling screw-up way worse than 2016
You have to squint to see how Biden’s lead won’t hold up on Election Day.
President Donald Trump still has a path to a second term. But it would take a polling debacle that would make 2016 look like a banner year.
Don’t Sweat the Polls
Why the 2020 election won’t be a 2016 sequel.
There is a small chance that their fears will come true. But for the past few weeks, I’ve been stockpiling all of the quantitative reasons why the 2020 election is really, trulydifferent from 2016, from new polling methodologies to fewer undecided voters. As always, do not allow any level of optimism (or pessimism) to guide your decision to vote. Just vote.
1. In 2016, the pollsters totally whiffed on the Great Lakes states. In 2020, they’ve changed their methods.
3. In 2016, we had the mother of all October surprises. In 2020, we have the most stable race in decades.