TRUMP: SO YOU’RE TELLING ME THERE’S A CHANCE YOUTUBE VIDEO
A poll might report that a certain candidate is going to win an election with 51 percent of the vote; The confidence level is 95 percent and the error is 4 percent. Let’s say the poll was repeated using the same techniques. The pollsters would expect the results to be within 4 percent of the stated result (51 percent) 95 percent of the time. In other words, 95 percent of the time they would expect the results to be between:
- 51 – 4 = 47 percent and
- 51 + 4 = 55 percent.
National polls are more accurate on the whole than state polls. This is important because we know, for example, that if Biden is up by say 8 points nationally, he probably is up something close to that. The chance anyone loses the electoral college when up 8 points nationally is basically nil.
Biden leads 46 to 42 with a margin of error 5 percent.
If the poll were repeated and with a confidence level of 95 percent, the results of the new poll would fall within the range:
Biden- 46 plus 5 or 51 percent
Biden- 46 minus 5 or 41 percent
Trump- 42 plus 5 or 47 percent
Trump 42 minus 5 or 37 percent
Biden’s best is 51 points and Trump’s best is 47 points…
So the take away here is that for Trump to win in Nevada, he must perform at his best and Biden must perform at his worse and under these circumstances, Trump can only win by 1 point.
On the other hand, if Biden performs at his best and Trump at his worse, it’s a Biden blowout 51 to 37 and Biden wins by 14 points…
TRUMP: SO YOU’RE TELLING ME THERE’S A CHANCE…